Does the draw affect the performance of the horse at Wolverhampton?
All races are run on the round course, with the 7f distance starting from a chute:
Wolverhampton 7f Draw Bias
Up to 7f and the number of races keeps increasing; there are nearly 400 races in the sample:
Lower Third: 34.5%
Middle Third: 36.8%
Upper Third: 28.7%
High draws are slightly worse off again and the PRB figures support this marginal negative bias with high numbers significantly worse off. Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is a calculation based on a horse’s finishing position in relation to field size. It makes key distinctions between a horse finishing third in a five-horse race (PRB 50%, two rivals beaten, beaten by two rivals) and finishing third in an eleven-horse race (PRB 80%, eight rivals beaten, beaten by two rivals):
Lower Third: 0.52
Middle Third: 0.53
Upper Third: 0.45
In general, you should factor this bias in when considering horses from double figure draws.
However, when we look at races of over 1 mile the draw bias disappears; in these races you can totally disregard the draw.
In summary, at Wolverhampton in 8+ runner handicaps, the draw has a clear bias up to and including 7f, with very high draws at particular disadvantage, while low draws are fair best over 5f.
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