Let’s see how the trainers at Wolverhampton have got on.
There are nearly 3500 races going back to 2017 which means we have a rather big database to look at. Looking at all race types, here are the trainers who have managed a win-strike-rate of 14% or more from at least 150 runs:
|Trainer||Runners||Wins||Win %||Win P/L||ROI||A/E||I/V|
|S C Williams||218||36||16.51||-56.68||-26||0.97||1.53|
A/E: The A stands for Actual whilst the E stands for Expected and thus the stat shows the index of actual winners to expected winners. Calculating an index this way shows ‘value’ and thus value bets, and value lays can be easily identified. If a stat has ‘more winners than expected’ then we have found a good thing for backing. If a stat has ‘less winners than expected’ then we’ve found a weakness – an indicator of bad ‘value’ for betting purposes.
I/V: Impact Value, or IV, helps us to understand how often something happens in a specific situation by comparing it against a more general set of information for the same situation. It is worked out by the formula: (winners / All winners) / (runners / All runners). An IV of 1 is the ‘standard’ for the total rate of incidence of something. A number greater than 1 relates that something happens more than standard, and a number less than 1 implies it happens less than standard. The further above or below 1 the IV figure is, the more or less frequently than ‘standard’ something happens. The example IV of 2.48 means the trainer won at a rate nearly two-and-a-half times the overall trainer seasonal average: 2.48 times, to be precise.
All-weather regulars Haggas, Gosden and Varian all have strike rates in excess of one win in every four runs. If we look at them a little closer.
William Haggas at Wolverhampton
Haggas’ front and prominent racers have won over 40 races and secured a strike rate of a massive 43.1%. Conversely, his midfield and hold up horses have won just 11 races from 78 (SR 14.1%).
Another interesting fact is that Haggas’ horses sent off both as favourites and second favourites have been profitable to SP with (9% and 13% ROIs, respectively).
Haggas has managed a strike rate of 36% when teaming up with jockey Tom Marquand with a return on investment of 11%.
Finally, Haggas has much better stats in non-handicaps where his runners have broken even. His handicappers have an ROI on -23%.
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