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Wolverhampton Trainer Stats

Looking at nearly 3500 races going back to 2017 at all race types, here are the stats for the trainers who have managed a win-strike-rate of 14% or more from at least 150 runs:

TrainerRunnersWinsWin %Win P/LROIA/EI/V
W Haggas1785329.78-15.66-8.801.052.74
J&T Gosden2225826.13-32.99-14.860.882.31
R Varian1774525.421.971.110.922.39
H Palmer1623722.846.974.301.022.06
S&E Crisford1763821.59-37.41-21-60.891.99
J Tate2204420.00-35.03-15.920.991.87
A Balding2243816.96-39.38-17.580.881.48
A Watson3385716.86-99.49-29.430.911.60
E Walker1923216.67-45.22-23.550.961.66
A King1752916.57-5.74-
S C Williams2183616.51-56.68-260.971.53
D Simcock2413916.18-27.61-11.460.981.38
C Cox2103315.71-23.44-11.160.961.56
M Prescott1852915.68-56.33-30.450.951.52
T Dascombe3805715.0062.8616.540.861.41
R Hughes2533714.62-69.50-27.470.861.4
K Burke3264614.1121.736.670.911.31

A/E: The A stands for Actual whilst the E stands for Expected and thus the stat shows the index of actual winners to expected winners. Calculating an index this way shows ‘value’ and thus value bets, and value lays can be easily identified. If a stat has ‘more winners than expected’ then we have found a good thing for backing. If a stat has ‘less winners than expected’ then we’ve found a weakness – an indicator of bad ‘value’ for betting purposes.

I/V: Impact Value, or IV, helps us to understand how often something happens in a specific situation by comparing it against a more general set of information for the same situation. It is worked out by the formula: (winners / All winners) / (runners / All runners). An IV of 1 is the ‘standard’ for the total rate of incidence of something. A number greater than 1 relates that something happens more than standard, and a number less than 1 implies it happens less than standard. The further above or below 1 the IV figure is, the more or less frequently than ‘standard’ something happens. The example IV of 2.48 means the trainer won at a rate nearly two-and-a-half times the overall trainer seasonal average: 2.48 times, to be precise.

John & Thady Gosden at Wolverhampton
Every year they have managed a win percentage of 20% or higher. Moreover, in an each way perspective (win and placed combined) Team Gosden has hit over 50% in five of the six seasons. Even the low of 44.74% in 2017 is fairly impressive.

It’s also noteworthy that 96.5% of all their winners have come from the top three in the betting. Horses fourth or less likely have a very bad record in the betting with just 2 wins in 40(SR 5%).

Their 2 year olds have managed a small profit.

Gosden’s non-handicappers have almost broken even.

Finally, Gosden’s hold up horses have won just 15% of the time, with a shocking -56% ROI.

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