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Wolverhampton Trainer Stats

Looking at nearly 3500 races going back to 2017 at all race types, here are the stats for the trainers who have managed a win-strike-rate of 14% or more from at least 150 runs:

TrainerRunnersWinsWin %Win P/LROIA/EI/V
W Haggas1785329.78-15.66-8.801.052.74
J&T Gosden2225826.13-32.99-14.860.882.31
R Varian1774525.421.971.110.922.39
H Palmer1623722.846.974.301.022.06
S&E Crisford1763821.59-37.41-21-60.891.99
J Tate2204420.00-35.03-15.920.991.87
A Balding2243816.96-39.38-17.580.881.48
A Watson3385716.86-99.49-29.430.911.60
E Walker1923216.67-45.22-23.550.961.66
A King1752916.57-5.74-
S C Williams2183616.51-56.68-260.971.53
D Simcock2413916.18-27.61-11.460.981.38
C Cox2103315.71-23.44-11.160.961.56
M Prescott1852915.68-56.33-30.450.951.52
T Dascombe3805715.0062.8616.540.861.41
R Hughes2533714.62-69.50-27.470.861.4
K Burke3264614.1121.736.670.911.31

A/E: The A stands for Actual whilst the E stands for Expected and thus the stat shows the index of actual winners to expected winners. Calculating an index this way shows ‘value’ and thus value bets, and value lays can be easily identified. If a stat has ‘more winners than expected’ then we have found a good thing for backing. If a stat has ‘less winners than expected’ then we’ve found a weakness – an indicator of bad ‘value’ for betting purposes.

I/V: Impact Value, or IV, helps us to understand how often something happens in a specific situation by comparing it against a more general set of information for the same situation. It is worked out by the formula: (winners / All winners) / (runners / All runners). An IV of 1 is the ‘standard’ for the total rate of incidence of something. A number greater than 1 relates that something happens more than standard, and a number less than 1 implies it happens less than standard. The further above or below 1 the IV figure is, the more or less frequently than ‘standard’ something happens. The example IV of 2.48 means the trainer won at a rate nearly two-and-a-half times the overall trainer seasonal average: 2.48 times, to be precise.

Roger Varian at Wolverhampton
Impressively, Roger Varian has managed the slightest of profits to SP.

When Varian books Jack Mitchell they have won 24 from 72 races (33.3%) for a substantial profit of £49.13 (ROI +68.2%).

Varian’s 3-year-olds have won or placed in over 60% of races entered and betting on them all to win would have generated a return on investment of +19%.

When it comes to fillies and mares (females), his strike rate is bigger than with male runners, earning a profit of +£22.66 (+28.3% ROI).

In every season Roger Varian’s runners have secured a win-and-placed strike rate of over 50%.

Varian’s horses that race prominently have won more than 35% of races.

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