Newcastle 7f Run Style Bias
Once we get to 7 furlongs, the front running edge is minimal as you can see in the stats:
Front Runner: 11.33%
Mid- Division: 5.8%
Hold Up: 9.46%
The hold up horses are much more competitive at this distance, although the front runners still do best.
Newcastle 1 Mile Run Style Bias
Going up to 1 mile the most successful tactic then changes:
Front Runner: 7.22%
Mid- Division: 6.86%
Hold Up: 10.18%
Front runners begin to struggle, while hold up horses have taken the lead as the most successful group from a win strike rate perspective. What’s more, if you had backed all 1,140 hold up horses over a mile you would have made a very modest profit to SP. This is quite unusual. It’s also worth noting that with races of 13 or 14 runners (max field size over 1 mile is 14) hold up horses perform slightly better.
In summary, front runners have a decent edge over 5f and a solid one over 6f at Newcastle racecourse. However, once distance reaches a mile the best race preference is to be a hold up horse.
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