Newcastle’s Gosforth Park circuit uses a tapeta surface instead of the polytrack at Lingfield, Kempton, and Chelmsford.
Let’s analyse Newcastle’s 6f Run Style Bias. From 1/10/21 to 31/8/22 we can see the following:
Front Runner: 13.79%
Prominent: 8.59%
Mid- Division: 11.48%
Hold Up: 6.15%
There is a slight advantage to front runners over the last 11 months. These front running stats are very similar to the long term data going back to 2017. The mid-division runners have performed a bit above their long term norm but this is likely due to variance of a smaller sample size. Here are the stats going back to the start of 2017:
Front Runner: 13.77%
Prominent: 7.46%
Mid- Division: 9.35%
Hold Up: 8.05%
Similarly to 5 furlongs, the stats for 6f prominent racers, midfield and hold up runners have roughly the same success rates.
In summary, you can see that 6f distance gives front runners a tangible edge, but nothing extraordinary. One thing to note is that front runners in the top three of the betting have won almost 30% of the time (63% win and placed).
Hope you enjoyed this free UK horse racing tips and analysis.
Your number one horse racing tipster
Ron
